Gold Production & Supply Data: Record Outputs and Structural Constraints

Global gold supply expanded in 2025, supported by record mine output and elevated recycling activity. Yet despite higher production, structural constraints limited the market’s ability to fully offset strong demand.

Mine production exceeded 3,600 tonnes, while recycling contributed roughly 1,300 tonnes, keeping total supply near historic highs — but not enough to materially weaken prices above US$2,500 per ounce.

Key Findings#

• Global mine production: 3,600+ tonnes in 2025
• Recycling supply: ~1,300 tonnes
• Total supply: Near record levels
• Ghana output: Record 6 million ounces
• Price impact: Supply growth modest relative to demand surge

Even at record production levels, supply growth lagged the pace of investment-driven demand.

Global Mine Production Trends#

Mine output has grown gradually over recent years, though gains remain incremental rather than exponential.

Structural Characteristics#

• Limited major new discoveries
• Rising capital and energy costs
• Increasing regulatory scrutiny

Production growth averaged less than 2% annually, underscoring supply rigidity in the gold market.

Country Spotlight: Ghana’s Record Output#

Ghana emerged as a standout producer in 2025, reporting a record 6 million ounces of gold output.

This milestone reflects:

• Expanded industrial mining capacity
• Strong performance from large-scale operators
• Continued foreign investment in extraction

While significant, Ghana’s gains represent a fraction of global supply — highlighting how geographically diversified production remains.

Single-country records rarely shift global pricing unless replicated broadly.

Recycling: The Flexible Supply Lever#

Recycled gold plays a crucial counter-cyclical role.

In 2025, recycling added approximately 1,300 tonnes to total supply.

Why Recycling Rises in Bull Markets#

• High prices incentivize scrap sales
• Consumers liquidate old jewellery
• Retail exchange programs expand

Unlike mine production, recycling can respond quickly to price spikes — though it remains volume-limited.

Supply Constraints vs Price Moves#

Despite record outputs, gold prices remained elevated.

Several structural constraints explain why:

• New mine development cycles exceed 7–10 years
• Ore grades are declining globally
• Environmental compliance costs are rising

Meanwhile, investment demand exceeded 1,300 tonnes, absorbing incremental supply.

Supply growth has been steady — demand growth has been faster.

This imbalance helped sustain prices above US$2,500/oz through late 2025 and early 2026.

Policy and Tariff Impacts#

Policy decisions increasingly shape mining economics.

Key factors include:

• Export duties in producing countries
• Environmental permitting requirements
• Energy cost fluctuations
• Royalty revisions

In emerging markets, fiscal adjustments can either accelerate or restrict production growth.

Trade dynamics and currency movements also influence producer margins, indirectly affecting long-term output decisions.

Supply Snapshot: 2025#

Outlook: Can Supply Keep Up?#

Looking ahead, supply growth is likely to remain incremental rather than transformative.

Factors Supporting Growth#

• Incremental expansions in Africa and Latin America
• Technological efficiency gains
• Sustained high prices incentivizing output

Structural Limitations#

• Declining ore grades
• Long development timelines
• ESG and regulatory pressures

If demand remains near 5,000 tonnes annually, supply expansion alone may be insufficient to suppress prices meaningfully.

Conclusion#

2025 demonstrated that record production does not automatically translate into price weakness.

With mine output exceeding 3,600 tonnes and Ghana achieving 6 million ounces, global supply reached historic levels — yet structural constraints and robust investment demand maintained upward price pressure.

Gold’s supply story is one of steady growth, not explosive expansion — a dynamic that continues to underpin long-term price support.